Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz for the second time in five days. The Revolutionary Guard announced the decision on Saturday. It blamed Israel’s renewed airstrikes in southern Lebanon. The strikes killed 16 people, including two children. Iran called the attacks a violation of the ceasefire signed on Tuesday. That deal had reopened the strait after a three-month blockade.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit route. It carries one-fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas. Iran’s closure threatens to disrupt shipments again. The US military confirmed 55 merchant vessels carrying 17 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on Saturday. But insurers have already raised war-risk premiums by 15%. Shell and BP paused new shipments. India released 5 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Analysts warn a seven-day closure could erase 1.5% of global oil supply.
The closure exposes a flaw in the ceasefire agreement. The deal lacks a dispute resolution mechanism. Iran acted unilaterally without consulting mediators. The US and Israel have not formally protested. This silence suggests they accept the closure as a proportional response. Iran’s military command warned of further measures if aggression continues. The Revolutionary Guard threatened vessels approaching the strait. Their security could be at risk.
Diplomatic talks in Switzerland are now focused on reopening the strait. Iran’s delegation includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The US will be led by Vice President JD Vance. Mediators hope to finalize a broader settlement within 60 days. The agenda includes Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. But the priority has shifted to restoring shipping access. Pakistan’s interior minister visited Tehran on Saturday. He offered to mediate between Iran and the US. Pakistan shares a border with Iran and maintains neutral relations.
The fighting in Lebanon continues despite the ceasefire. Israel accused Hezbollah of firing 50 projectiles overnight. Hezbollah denied the claim. It said Israel violated the truce first. Lebanese state media reported Israeli air raids on 20 locations. The death toll in Lebanon has surpassed 4,000 since March. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said his group retains the right to respond to attacks. Israel’s military said it would answer fire with fire.
The US designed the ceasefire to isolate Israel. The agreement did not require Israel’s formal approval. Instead, the US acted as Israel’s guarantor. This allowed Israel to continue military operations without directly violating the deal. Iran’s closure challenges this arrangement. It forces the US to choose between enforcing the ceasefire and supporting Israel’s self-defense. The US has not responded to the closure. This delay suggests internal divisions within the Biden administration.
The economic impact extends beyond oil markets. Japan and China rely on Gulf oil imports. Both countries have not commented on emergency measures. But China is expected to release strategic reserves. The closure could delay shipments to Asian refineries. This would tighten global supply. The last Hormuz blockade in 2019 sent oil prices above $120 a barrel. Traders are bracing for a repeat.
The closure also reveals a deeper geopolitical tension. The US and Iran structured the ceasefire to sideline Israel. The deal did not include Israel in negotiations. This allowed Iran to frame the closure as a response to US failures. The US now faces pressure to enforce the agreement. But it must balance this with its alliance with Israel. The Biden administration has not clarified its position. This ambiguity risks prolonging the crisis.
